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The coronavirus outbreak has sent the global economy reeling as businesses shutter and billions of people hunker down. Air travel, vehicle traffic, and industrial production have swiftly declined in recent weeks, with much of the world frozen in place until the virus—which has killed more than 39,000 people globally—can be safely contained. One consequence of the crisis may be a sizable, if temporary, decline in heat-trapping emissions this year.
Global carbon dioxide emissions could fall by 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent in 2020, says Glen Peters, research director of the Center for International Climate Research in Norway. He based his estimates on new projections for slower economic growth in 2020. In Europe, CO2 emissions from large sources could plunge by more than 24 percent this year. That’s according to an early assessment of the Emissions Trading Scheme, which sets a cap on the European Union’s emissions. In Italy, France, and other nations under quarantine, power demand has dropped considerably since early March.
As experts look to the future, Lauri Myllyvirta is tracking how the new coronavirus is already affecting China—the world’s largest carbon emitter, where more than a dozen cities were on lockdown for nearly two months. Myllyvirta is an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, an independent organization. Previously based in Beijing, he now lives in Helsinki, where I recently reached him by phone. Our conversation is edited and condensed for clarity.